Today on Morning Joe, there was a discussion of the possibility of a viable third-party in the United States. They proceeded from the premise that about two-thirds of registered voters are independents and would, therefore, welcome a third choice in our elections.
But, IMO, they ignore an important point: Not all of those independents would welcome the same third choice. I figure about a third of them would want a party strongly to the left of the Democrats, another third would want a party strongly to the right of the Republicans, and the remainder would want a party midway between the two existing parties.
IOW, there is no more than about 22% of the electorate that is in favor of any one kind of political party as an alternative. There are around 214,000,000 registered voters in this country...and in the election with the highest turnout in decades in 2020, only about 160,000,000 of them (or about 75%) actually voted. (In most presidential years, the turn-out is more like 60% and in "off-years," often below 50%.)
So, if a third party existed and even all of its registrants voted for its candidate, the best that candidate could hope for is 47,000,000 votes. And if each of my imagined third parties did the same, they would get around the same, leaving 71,000,000 for the Republicans and Democrats to split. In recent years, that split has been virtually 50-50, so each of the two "established" parties would get around 36,000,000 votes. No one would have a majority of the popular vote.
Of course, this ignores that some Democrats and Republicans might vote for one of the third-party candidates. Still, I think a third party--of any political stripe--has a tough row to hoe.
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