Saturday, February 26, 2022

What to Do About Ukraine

Sorry for the long hiatus, but I went through a period where there was nothing I wanted to write about.

And for the last week, I've been trying to be sure I really understood the current situation and had seen enough from the reputed experts to be able to comment intelligently and coherently. The subject? Ukraine, of course.

I am especially perturbed by those in both parties who argue that Biden should be doing more. I can only ask these people, "Like what?" I know many think we should be providing more arms to the Ukrainians; my concern is, should Ukraine's government fall, all those arms (and the related technology) would be in the hands of the Russians. Others go further and think we should put "boots on the ground" in Ukraine. I particularly question those on the Republican side (or the Trump side--not necessarily the same thing) who make that argument...because I know that the first time there's a major loss of American lives they will change their tune. And those calling for stiffer economic sanctions would criticize such a move if it has economic ramifications here at home (which it would).

Any decision likely to create a physical confrontation between Russian and American troops (or even just NATO troops) could trigger a full-on war. I think we need to give the current sanctions and other moves by the US and others time to have an effect; it seems some of them already are--reports are that the average Russian citizen is at best ambivalent and possibly opposed to their government's actions in Ukraine.

Russia's attempt at a blitzkrieg style assault on Kyiv is faltering. The opposition they are facing is stronger than they anticipated...and it will only get stronger as time goes on. Despite the many ties between Russia and Ukraine, Ukrainians have always proudly viewed themselves as a separate nation--and a threat of forced unification will only intensify that pride and that view.

It reminds me of Germany's Anschluss approach to Austria before World War II. The Austrian government acquiesced before the German threat; the Austrian people did not.