Why Vote-by-Mail Frightens the GOP

 In an effort to figure out why the idea of universal or near-universal voting by mail is such a nightmare to the Republican Party, I did some research on Presidential election results in the two states that currently have universal mail-in voting: Washington and Oregon.

Before 1988, both states reliably voted for the Republican candidate. In 1988, both went Democratic and have ever since. What changed? Well, vote-by-mail was signed into law as an option in Oregon in 1987 and by 2000 it was universal: Every registered voter gets a ballot in the mail. In Washington, the option went into effect in 1991, and went universal in 2005.

Why should this make such a difference? Over the past 30 years, high turn-out elections have resulted in Democratic wins, both nationally and on a state level. Mail-in voting, as we saw this year, substantially increases turn-out; make it easier to vote and more people will vote. Then the question becomes, why does higher turn-out result in more Democratic victories? Minorities, women, and independents are the groups least likely to vote, traditionally, and they are more likely to vote Democratic (yes, even the independents). Increase turn-out generally and, naturally, more voters from those groups will vote.

This does not bode well for the GOP in the future. Current predictions are that the United States will be "minority-majority" by about 2040 (that is, more people will be black, Latino, Asian, or some other ethnicity than white). When you also consider that women are already more likely to vote than men, and the phrase "demographics is destiny" looks like an obituary for the Republican Party.