That Which Survives

As I was thinking about what to write for today, I began to consider a question: Which businesses and industries affected by the pandemic and lock-down are likely to come out okay in a year or so...and which will suffer to the point of non-existence?

I think the largest retailers--Wal-Mart, Target, Costco, etc.--will do all right. They all might wind up with a "down" year...maybe even an unprofitable one...but they'll survive. Businesses we once thought of as invincible--Macy's, Sears--that were already suffering from the turn to on-line retail will become even smaller. Sears will probably disappear entirely, selling off its once iconic brands like Kenmore and Craftsman to others.

Local and regional stores will be dependent on the local economies. Around here, the regional chain Boscov's was one of the first to resume advertising as we opened up; getting a jump on its more national competition will, I think, put it in good position to survive. The chains that are largely mall-located (American Eagle, Express, as examples) are in for a hard road.

The entertainment business is another question entirely. I honestly don't see movie theaters opening in any real sense before Summer 2021, in part because it will take that long for the movie industry to have enough product to fill them. Can they survive a full year closed? The production end, once they have the go-ahead in Los Angeles and New York, can ramp up pretty quickly. If they haven't been doing the pre-production work of script development, set design, storyboards in the past three or four months, they've missed a bet. (But I'd look for a glut of animated features, because so much of that work can be done remotely these days.) And, of course, they can turn to streaming services until the theaters are back in business.

Speaking of theaters, I think the entertainment business that will suffer the most is live theater. Broadway doesn't expect to be open until January 2021 and I suspect that is optimistic. Even shows that were open and running last February will have trouble getting back on the boards. Can they get the cast back? Will they have to hold a new casting audition? New shows will be even worse off--they won't even be able to begin casting until January (if then) and the long road through rehearsals and try-outs means Fall of 2021 for new productions. (I expect a lot of revivals, which will require less in the way of tweaking of script, etc.)

National tours will probably be moribund until Fall of 2021 as well, waiting until most of the country is fully open before scheduling anything.

Now we get to what I really care about: Local amateur theater. Everything around here is shut down, at least until January, I think. (I figure being able to start auditions in September/October and then two months of rehearsals and such, if we're lucky.) And a lot of those early productions may be very bare-bones--the theaters will have gone through nine months with no revenue...and probably even some losses, as rights that were paid for shows intended to be produced in the Spring may not have been refunded.

What do you think? Is my analysis correct?