Over on Facebook, my buddy Rich Kolker asked for predictions on when the networks will be able to call the election on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Copied from my response to him, here's mine:
I'm expecting a big enough Biden win in the early states to have a call by 1 AM ET. All of New England, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA, MI, go Biden. That's 75 right there. Add in the whole West Coast, MN, IL, AZ, CO, NV and we're up to 210 for Biden.
Now, what are Trump's definite wins? AL, MS, LA, TN, KY, AR, OK, ND, SD, MO, MT, WY, ID, IN (giving this to Trump because of Pence). That's 91 for him to count on.
That leaves the following and how I see them: PA, FL, WI, OH for Biden=77, taking his total to 287. WV, NC, NE to Trump=25, making his total 116.
Even if we give Trump TX, SC, and GA, that only adds 63 to his total for 179. And I personally think GA goes to Biden.
So, let's swap GA and FL: Take 29 from Biden and give him the 16 from GA instead. Take 16 from Trump and give him the 29 from FL. That deducts 13 from Biden, for 274, and adds 13 to Trump for 192. Closer but still a solid Biden win.
Oh, and I forgot AK and HI...AK goes to Trump for an additional 3; HI to Biden for an additional 4 (which won't be added until 3AM ET at the earliest).
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